November’s new-vehicle sales, when announced this week, are expected to fall in both volume and pace from last year’s levels, according to Cox Automotive forecast released Nov. 25. The November new-vehicle sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million, up slightly from October’s 15.3 million pace, but down from last year’s 16.5 million level. Through October, the monthly SAAR has averaged 16.2 million.
Sales volume is expected to fall to 1.27 million, down 1% from October and 7.8% from last year’s finish. November has 25 selling days, two fewer than last month and down one from last year, which accounts for some of the expected volume decline.
“The new-vehicle sales pace had been expected to slow in the fourth quarter, and that’s what we are seeing,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The headwinds from higher prices and fewer government subsidies for electric vehicles are finally slowing the market after a surprisingly strong previous six months. Sales began surging in the spring as buyers rushed to market to beat expected higher prices in the wake of announced tariffs. Now, with more tariffed products replacing existing non-tariffed inventory, prices are drifting higher, leading to slower sales which may last through the remainder of the year and into next year.”
