February new-vehicle sales are expected to reflect ongoing challenges due to winter weather and economic uncertainty, yet demonstrate some improvement compared to January’s results.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR) in February is anticipated to be approximately 15.6 million. This figure represents a decline from last year’s 16.0 million level but marks an increase over January’s weather-affected pace of 14.9 million.
According to the Cox Automotive forecast released Feb. 24, new-vehicle sales volume is expected to finish at 1.19 million, down 3.4% from last February, which had the same number of selling days. Compared to January, new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise by 6.9% in February, with two fewer selling days, which is the typical seasonal trend.
“The new-vehicle sales pace shifted to a lower gear in Q4 of last year, and that weakness is expected to continue through this month as well,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “February’s SAAR is expected to improve on January’s weather-impacted 14.9 million level but still reflect the harsh headwinds facing vehicle buyers. The loss of electric vehicle tax credits at the end of Q3 continues to impact sales. Also, the market is slowing due to ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy and high new-vehicle prices. These conditions are expected to be major headwinds for the new-vehicle market throughout 2026.
“However, we may see some strengthening in the coming months as tax refunds are distributed across the country. The Big Beautiful Bill passed in July of last year is expected to result in higher refunds this year, so this could provide a minor, short-term boost to vehicle sales in the coming months.”
February has 24 selling days, the same as last year but two fewer than January.
