After years of increases, U.S. auto theft is finally trending downward — but the risk hasn’t disappeared. Mercury Insurance reviewed auto theft statistics dating back to 2023 to track and share insights from those learnings.
According to the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB), 2025 saw a 23% decline in vehicle thefts compared to the same period in 2024, with 49 states reporting fewer incidents. That follows a 16.7% decrease in 2024 after thefts peaked in 2023, signaling a continued national slowdown. Still, theft levels remain elevated in key regions, particularly California, where more than 50% of statewide thefts occur in Southern California — especially Los Angeles County.
At the same time, criminals are shifting tactics.Rather than traditional “smash and grab” break-ins, thieves are increasingly exploiting keyless entry systems, relay attacks and on-board diagnostic (OBD) port vulnerabilities to steal vehicles more quickly and quietly.
“While the number of auto thefts has been declining, incidents of crime still remain high, especially in California,” said Justin Yoshizawa, product management for Mercury Insurance. “It remains important that vehicle owners stay vigilant in protecting their investments.”
Key Auto Theft Trends (2024–2026): Declining National Numbers
- 23% decline in 2025 vs. 2024 (NICB)
- 16.7% decline in 2024 after a 2023 peak
Top Targeted Vehicles - Kia and Hyundai models have experienced some of the highest theft rates in recent years
- The trend has shifted away from just full-size pickup trucks
Regional Concentration - Over 50% of California vehicle thefts occur in Southern California
- Los Angeles County remains a primary hotspot
Evolving Theft Methods - Keyless entry exploitation
- Relay attacks targeting unsecured key fobs
- OBD port hacking and ignition bypasses
High Recovery Rates - More than 85% of stolen vehicles were recovered in 2023
