The Conference Board d declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—plummeted by 9.5 points to 116.8 in December. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—held steady at 70.7. The Expectations Index has now tracked under 80 for 11 consecutive months, the threshold below which the gauge signals recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was December 16, 2025.
“Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board.
Overall buying plans for autos dipped again in December. On a six-month moving average basis, expectations for purchasing new cars continued to slip, but plans to buy used cars continued to climb.
