Total new-vehicle sales for January 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,118,700, a 2.7% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.
January 2026 has 26 selling days, one more than January 2025. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 1.2% from 2025.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.0 million units, down 0.4 million units from January 2025.
New-vehicle retail sales for January 2026 are projected to reach 908,500, a 3.7% decrease from January 2025. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 0.1% from 2025.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for Retail new-vehicle sales is expected to be 12.7 million units, down 0.5 million units from January 2025.
“The average used-vehicle price is $28,550, up $490 from a year ago,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power. “This reflects the continued low supply of recent model-year used vehicles due to lower new-vehicle production during the pandemic, fewer lease maturities, and manufacturers moderating discounts. The ongoing strength of used-vehicle prices continues to be good news for new-vehicle buyers with a trade-in, with average trade-in equity in January at $8,091, up $293 year from a year ago. The number of new-vehicle buyers with negative equity on their trade-in is expected to reach 27.3 percent—an increase of 2.4 percentage points from January 2025.
“Despite a moderate start to the year, the full-year outlook remains relatively positive. Rising lease-return volumes, plus the expectation of lower interest rates present meaningful tailwinds to the industry. More importantly, as OEMs and Dealers navigate the evolving economics of EVs, there is likely to be an opportunity to improve affordability of ICE vehicles as production schedules shift towards a more profitable mix of vehicles for both OEMs and Dealers. Similarly, supply chain changes present the opportunity to partially mitigate tariffs, although tariff-related profit pressure for OEMs will persist throughout the year.”
