Iran sentiment remains a factor in consumer sentiment numbers in April according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.
“Consumer sentiment ticked down 3.5 index points this month, now comparable to the trough seen in June 2022,” stated Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. “Decreases in sentiment were seen across political party, income, age, and education. Expected business conditions declined for both short and long time horizons, nearly matching year-ago readings when the reciprocal tariff regime was implemented.
“After the two-week cease-fire was announced and gas prices softened a touch, sentiment recovered a modest portion of its early-month losses. The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices. In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.”
Hsu reported that “year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.7% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. After hovering between 3.2 and 3.3% for the previous four months, long-run inflation expectations climbed to 3.5% in April, the highest reading since October 2025. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.”
