Total new-vehicle sales for December 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,454,000, a 7.5% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.
December 2025 has 26 selling days, one more than December 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 3.8% from 2024.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.9 million units, down 1.1 million units from December 2024.
New-vehicle total sales for Q4 2025 sales are projected to reach 4,019,200 units, a 5.0% decrease from Q4 2024 when adjusting for the number of selling days.
New-vehicle total sales for the second half of 2025 are projected to reach 8,061,500 units, a decrease of 1.3% from a year ago when adjusting for the number of selling days.
New-vehicle total sales for full-year 2025 are projected to reach 16,275,300, an increase of 2.3% when adjusting for the number of selling days.
New-vehicle retail sales for Q4 2025 sales are projected to reach 3,374,300 units, a 4.8% decrease from Q4 2024 when adjusting for the number of selling days.
New-vehicle retail sales for the second half of 2025 are projected to reach 6,905,900 units, an increase of 0.4% from a year ago when adjusting for the number of selling days.
New-vehicle retail sales for full-year 2025 are projected to reach 13,599,300, an increase of 4.0% when adjusting for the number of selling days.
The Takeaways:
“December caps a year marked by volatility, as the industry continues to deal with the consequences of import tariffs and changes to electric vehicle legislation,” Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power, said. “To say it’s been a sales roller coaster of a year would be an understatement….
“Despite much speculation regarding major increases in new vehicle prices due to tariffs, the actual increases, as correctly predicted by J.D. Power, have been muted. The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in December for all vehicles is expected to reach $47,104, up $715 or 1.5 percent from December 2024. Separating out electric vehicles, the average price on non-EV’s has powered vehicles rose 1.4% to $46,807.”
