Wholesale used-vehicle values continued to fall in early October, with small pickups losing value across every age group and minivans remaining under pressure. The declines are also running ahead of historical seasonal averages, according to Black Book's latest market report.
For the week ending Oct. 10, truck and SUV values fell 0.75%, compared with a 0.53% decline for cars. The overall market dropped 0.70%, versus a 0.44% average decline for the same week in 2017–2019.
Small Pickups Lose Value Across All Age Groups
Small pickups aged two to eight years recorded the steepest decline, losing 0.78% of their wholesale value in the latest week, compared with 0.38% the week before. Newer pickups fell 0.60%, while those aged eight to 16 years declined 0.53%.
All 13 truck and SUV segments tracked by Black Book recorded declines. The broad-based weakness suggests the pressure extends beyond older inventory, although individual models may perform differently.
Minivan Depreciation Eases
Minivan values fell 0.98% during the week, easing after declines exceeding 2% in each of the previous two weeks. Despite the improvement, minivans averaged 1.07% in weekly depreciation over the past 10 weeks.
The latest figures indicate that values are still falling, but the pace of decline has moderated.
Buyers Favor Retail-Ready Vehicles
Auction conversion held steady at 56%. Black Book reported that buyers continued to favor clean, retail-ready vehicles, while demand and pricing were less consistent for inventory with weaker retail appeal.
Premium sporty cars aged eight to 16 years edged up 0.01%, remaining stable for a fourth consecutive week. In the previous week's report, near-luxury cars in the same age group gained 0.06%.
Fuel Costs Add to Market Pressure
Cox Automotive's September analysis also found steeper-than-usual wholesale depreciation. Its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 1.1% month over month after seasonal and mix adjustments. Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb said September depreciation was steeper than typically expected for that time of year.
“We are in the weakest season for wholesale valuations, and as September closed, depreciation was steeper than we typically see this time of year,” Robb said in Cox Automotive's Oct. 7 report.
Cox also pointed to fuel costs and interest rates as market pressures, noting that large pickups and SUVs absorbed more of the fuel-cost impact.
The reports point to continued wholesale pressure, but falling auction values do not automatically translate into lower retail prices. How quickly asking prices adjust will help determine whether cheaper acquisition costs create more room for dealers or simply reflect a market in which vehicle values are declining.
