Critical Shifts:
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Supply Tightening (New Inventory Drop): New commercial vehicle availability saw a sharp contraction, with average on-lot inventory per dealer falling 20.7% from the previous quarter and 21.2% year-over-year.
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Declining New Vehicle Sales: Driven by limited buyer options on lots, movement of new work trucks and vans dropped significantly by 25.8% quarter-over-quarter and 4.2% year-over-year.
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Stable New Pricing vs. Faster Turn Times: The average price for a new vehicle held steady at $59,217 (up just 0.4% quarter-over-quarter), while Days to Turn decreased by 5.5%, marking the second consecutive quarter of faster new vehicle turnover.
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Upstream Pressures: The sudden squeeze on new inventory points to emerging supply chain and cost challenges upstream, likely influenced by recent tariff activity.
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Downstream Used Market Strains: Because new vehicles are harder to come by, fleets are holding onto their existing assets longer. This shift has triggered a 4.8% quarter-over-quarter increase in used vehicle prices (averaging $38,685) along with a 4.0% bump in average mileage.
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Cautious Used Buyers: Higher prices and fewer choices have slowed the used market down, resulting in a 9.1% drop in used sales and a 12.7% spike in Days to Turn (climbing to 62 days).
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Work Truck Solutions, a commercial vehicle digital platform, has released its Q1 2026 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis. Q1 data reveal a significant tightening in new vehicle availability and early signs of downstream pressure in the used market. While pricing remains relatively stable, the sharp contraction in new vehicle inventory suggests emerging upstream cost and sourcing challenges—likely influenced by recent tariff activity—are beginning to shape the commercial vehicle landscape.
New Work Truck and Van Market
- The average final price for new work trucks remained steady, rising 0.4% Quarter over Quarter (QoQ) and 0.3% Year over Year (YoY) to $59,217.
- However, availability shifted sharply: average on lot inventory per dealer fell 20.7% from Q4 and 21.2% YoY.
- Sales (movement) also declined, dropping 25.8% QoQ and 4.2% Year over Year.
- QoQ Days to Turn (DTT) decreased by 5.5%, and although YoY DTT remains 9.3% higher than Q1 2025, Q1 2026 marks the second quarter with a drop following last quarter’s 1.5% QoQ decrease.
- With fewer new vehicles on dealership lots, buyer options are becoming more limited, and overall sales activity is constrained.
Used Work Truck and Van Market
- The average final price for used commercial vehicles rose 4.8% QoQ and 6.3% YoY to $38,685.
- Inventory dipped slightly, down 3.6% both QoQ and YoY.
- Sales (movement) declined 9.1% both QoQ and YoY.
- DTT increased to 62 days, up 12.7% both QoQ and YoY, indicating slower turnover as buyers navigate higher prices and limited selection.
- Average mileage rose 4.0% QoQ but is still down 4.8% YoY.
With new-vehicle availability slowing, fleets have begun to hold on to their trucks and vans longer. The results for the used-vehicle market include higher prices, higher mileage, fewer options, and more cautious buyers.
“The commercial vehicle market is clearly shifting,” said Aaron Johnson, CEO of Work Truck Solutions. “After a period of strong competition and healthy inventory levels in late 2025, we’re now seeing meaningful tightening, particularly in new vehicle supply. Although sales remain steady relative to availability, reduced inventory is beginning to ripple into the used market, where higher prices and rising Days to Turn reflect growing friction.
“While it’s too early to draw firm conclusions, some of these patterns are consistent with the early effects of upstream cost and sourcing pressures, including those related to recent tariff activity. These kinds of shifts often begin subtly, showing up first in inventory flow and downstream pricing. Commercial dealers who stay proactive—leveraging digital merchandising, optimizing inventory visibility, and maintaining strong buyer engagement—will be best positioned to navigate whatever comes next.”
